Monday, January 25, 2021

Gun facts

Do more guns cause more death? Let's look at a few graphs.


Homicide Rates in US States and Canadian Provinces (FBI - Violent Crime, Homicide offences, number and rate, by province and territory - Statistics Canada):

Map:

Chart:


There are clear regional differences in many cases. States in the far north and far northeast of the United States report very low homicide rates while certain homicide "hotspots" apparently in Missouri, Maryland, Illinois, and the deep South are driving up US rates." - There's No Such Thing as an "American" Homicide Rate

In the US, 54% of counties have no murders in a year, while 2% of counties have 51% of the murders. So if you're outside of big metropolitan areas, statistically speaking, you are pretty safe from being a homicide victim.


Now let's look at some countries where stricter gun laws were passed, & rather or not homicides rates were effected.


From Gun Control: What Happened in England, Ireland, and Canada:


. The United Kingdom. After the United Kingdom tightened its firearms laws in 1997, with the latter virtually banning the private civilian possession of handguns in Great Britain (the mainland), the homicide rate still increased until it peaked in 2003.


. Canada. As you can see from Firearms regulation in Canada #History of firearm laws in Canada - Wikipedia, gun laws became more restrictive in the years 1951, 1969, 1977, 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2003, and were slightly loosened in 2006, 2012 and 2014, with the non-restricted (rifle and shotgun) registry was abolished (outside of Quebec). I do not see increasing the restrictions on firearms as reducing homicide rates.


Source: Canadian Center for Justice Statistics (Homicide Survey: 2001 report and 2014 report).


. Australia;

"tonry1.JPG

Source: Standardized homicide rates per 100,000 population, four English-speaking countries, various years to 2012. See "Why Crime Rates Are Falling Throughout the Western World" by Michael Tonry.

Part of the reason that the collection of homicide data in Australia is so recent a phenomenon is because it has tended to be so rare. Politically, it simply wasn't a national priority. Australia is a small country, with only a few more million people than Florida, spread out over an entire continent. In the relatively high homicide days of the early 1990s, Australia's homicides totaled around 300. This means in a bad crime year, in which homicides increase by only 20 or 30 victims, it could swing overall rates noticeably." - Australia's Gun Laws and Homicide: Correlation Isn't Causation

"A report from 2007 titled “Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference?” also noted that homicides were already falling prior to the NFA being enacted, and found that the NFA did not speed up the declining rate of homicides in Australia. More recent studies still find that the decline in homicides can not be attributed to the NFA, since non firearm homicides also sharply declined in the same period:

There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

In fairness, a review of the literature from Harvard did find that states that had more guns bought back experienced more rapid declines in homicide. However considering Australia was experiencing a decline in non firearm homicide at the same time, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly how much of an effect the NFA actually had. Even the review admits that no study was able to explain exactly why gun deaths were falling.

The claim that Australia has had no mass shootings since the NFA is also blatantly inaccurate, for example, there was a school shooting in Melbourne in 2002 that killed two and injured five. The 2014 Sydney Seige, where a man armed with a shotgun took a cafe hostage, also shows that despite the NFA, Australia has been unable to get rid of gun violence in public places." - Why Gun Control Doesn't Explain Australia's Low Homicide


. Republic of Ireland. After 1972, when restrictions on possessing firearms were significantly increased, the homicide rate still increased.

Source: Graph 9.4 (Retrieved by Google Cache from Central Statistics Office of Ireland.) and this report.


. Jamaica. After gun laws were tightened in the 1970's into some of the most restrictive in the free world (comparable to countries such as Japan), Jamaica's murder rate still increased.


. Czech Republic. In the Czech Republic, the number of homicides decreased while the number of legally owned firearms increased.




Within the United States of America, we see that as more states passed permissive laws on concealed carry, the homicide rate lowered. The homicide rate also lowered as gun purchase applications increased.

Graph:
Firearms Violence (colored part of chart).
Handgun Supply (blue line).
CCW States (red line).

U.S. Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population.
[Alcohol] Prohibition. Modern American Gun Control Era. Expansion of Concealed Carry Rights.



UNITED STATES HOMICIDE RATE COMPARED TO GUN PURCHASE APPLICATIONS



Progress in Firearms Carry Rights II
FBI UCR Violent Crime Rates Decline As Liberalized Carry Rights Implemented.



Wikipedia's File:Right to Carry, timeline.gif shows that more states today have shall-issue concealed carry permits or even permitless carry than in the past.


Again, do more guns create more death?
"


As you can see, there is no correlation. In fact, if you run the numbers, the correlations coefficient is 0.1, which suggests a negligible correlation, or none at all. The murder data is 2012 data from the Justice Department. The gun ownership rate data is from a 2015 report called "Gun ownership and social gun culture."

Just for good measure, I also went in and looked for a correlation between mass shootings and gun ownership rates. Here, I took the total number of mass shooting victims in all states so far in 2015. This is updated constantly by Mass Shooting Tracker, and includes the most recent Oregon mass shooting. Mass shootings here include a shooting involving 4 or more people, and do not necessarily mean school shooting. They can mean someone went nuts and shot his wife, her lover, and two bystanders at a birthday party when the shooter personally knew all the victims. There are not just cases of random public shootings. If we only included those, the total numbers would be microscopically small. Even with all mass shooting data together, it's obvious that your odds of being involved in one in any given year are vanishingly small, and less than 1 per 100,000 in 48 states. I've included all victims, not just fatalities here. If I used only fatalities, the mass shooting numbers would be much smaller (x axis = gun ownership percentage; y axis = mass shooting deaths per 100,000):



There's even less of a correlation here: -0.006.

Now, I've noticed that when someone points out the lack of a correlation here, gun-control advocates are quick to jump in and say "but you didn't control for this" and "you didn't control for that." That's true. But what I do show here is that the situation is much more complicated than one would think from absurd claims like "states with fewer guns have fewer murders" and so on. Apparently, claims that new gun laws are commonsensical can't be true if the relationship between gun laws and murder rates require us to adjust for half a dozen different variables. In fact, by looking at the data, I could imagine any number of other factors that might be more likely a determinant of the murder rate than gun ownership." - There's No Correlation Between Gun Ownership, Mass Shootings, and Murder Rates.


The District of Colombia mandated trigger-locks and banned civilians from purchasing handguns after 1976, but the homicide rate still soared while the rest of the country's homicide rate declined, and after the trigger-lock law and handgun ban was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2008, the murder rate actually decreased and did not increase again until 2014, 6 years later.


Chicago's ban 1982 ban on new handgun owners has completely failed to lower Chicago's murder rate. The murder rate fluctuated between 1982, when the handgun ban came into effect, and 2010, when the handgun ban was lifted.


Concerning the types of weapons used in violent crime and overall numbers, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Expanded Homicide Data Table 8 Murder Victims by Weapon, 2015–2019, handguns are used to kill more people than rifles, shotguns, and "other guns" combined in a given year. Rifles and shotguns combined are used to kill less people than "Knives or cutting instruments", "Blunt objects (clubs, hammers, etc.)", or even "Personal weapons (hands, fists, feet, etc.)". And this includes non-assault weapon rifles and shotguns in with assault weapons, so the actual number is going to be lower.


There are places with a lot of guns that are not that violent, such as Kennesaw, Georgia (which requires every household to have a firearm) and Svalbard, Norway, which requires everyone to know how to use a rifle against polar bears.

I’ll also mention Northern Ireland. While sure, the U.S.A. has gang violence, social authoritarians and religious rivalries, the U.S.A. virtually never has armed religious warfare.
But in Northern Ireland, despite a smaller population to cause trouble and less landmass to hide in, there has been open ARMED religious conflict between Catholics and Protestants, with tension lasting to this day, and virtually every law enforcement agent is armed with firearms, unlike the most of the U.K. which has dedicated Authorized Firearms Officers and Advanced Firearms Officers (the latter of which are the equivalent of  SWAT/Special Weapons And Tactics).

I would attribute the root of Northern Ireland’s violence being their culture, which affects politics. Unlike the U.S., which is founded on religious liberty and relatively heavy individualism, Northern Ireland’s conflict between Catholics and Protestants dates back centuries, and it seems like that there are a number of people who won’t let go of hard feelings, and worse, believe that it’s okay to hurt others for being too different.

Restricting inanimate objects such as weapons (there are plenty of examples of homemade weapons and ammunition) is not enough to address the actual disease rather than the symptoms. 
If we are to fight crime, then we must address other issues, such as culture, economics, availability of services, education, substance (ie drug and alcohol) use,, law enforcement effectiveness and even what counts as a certain crime and data manipulation just to name a few.

Speaking of data manipulation,


"Generally, there are two ways of collecting homicide data. We can collect it from the law enforcement agencies, and we can collect the "mortality" data from medical examiners and other medical personnel.

Much of the time, however, what counts as a homicide, can be rather subjective. In fact, as The Los Angeles Times noted back in 2007, Japanese officials are often biased against autopsies and tend to minimize the number of deaths that are declared homicides for purposes of padding the percentages of "solved" cases:

Police discourage autopsies that might reveal a higher homicide rate in their jurisdiction, and pressure doctors to attribute unnatural deaths to health reasons, usually heart failure, the group alleges. Odds are, it says, that people are getting away with murder in Japan, a country that officially claims one of the lowest per capita homicide rates in the world. 

"You can commit a perfect murder in Japan because the body is not likely to be examined," says Hiromasa Saikawa, a former member of the Tokyo Metropolitan Police security and intelligence division. He says senior police officers are "obsessed with statistics because that's how you get promotions," and strive to reduce the number of criminal cases as much as possible to keep their almost perfect solution rate.  Japan's annual police report says its officers made arrests in 96.6% of the country's 1,392 homicides in 2005.

But Saikawa, who says he became disillusioned by "fishy" police practices and in 1997 left the force in disgust after 30 years, claims that police try to avoid adding homicides to their caseload unless the identity of the killer is obvious. 

"All the police care about is how they look to people; it's all PR to show that their capabilities are high," Saikawa says. "Without autopsies they can keep their percentage [of solved cases] high. It's all about numbers."

(This article also details some of the corruption behind Japan's highly suspect 99% conviction rate.)

Moreover, one is likely to find suspiciously low homicide rates in many authoritarian countries in Asia, such as China which is clearly manipulating official data on a variety of issues.

Even in Canada, there are issues around reporting and compiling homicide data (although there is no indication of deliberate deception.) This document notes that there are persistent differences between the mortality data and the data from law enforcement agencies.

In the US as well, it is important to remember that the mortality data put out by the Centers for Disease Control includes justifiable homicide simply as "homicide." In other words, if a violent maniac breaks into your house, and you shoot him dead, that will be included in the CDC's official "homicide rate."

In practice, it is likely that the US is far more liberal in its counting of homicides than numerous countries. For example, infanticide in the US is generally counted as homicide, although that is not the case in some other jurisdictions. The UNODC reports:

Nonetheless, the challenges of cross-national comparability are considerable. National legal systems may have different thresholds for categorising a death as intentional homicide.Whilst intentional homicide usually requires that the perpetrator purposefully intends to cause the death or serious injury of a victim, in some countries a death that occursin the act or attempted act of another serious crime may also qualify as ‘intentional’ homicide or murder. Infanticide, assault leading to death and killings carried out by law enforcement officers (acting legitimately in the line of duty or not) all may or may not be included in police recorded statistics.
In addition,differences in police recording practices such as differences in counting units (offences, suspects or cases), whether or not attempted homicide or non intentional homicides are included in published figures,and the point in the investigation at which a suspicious death is classified as homicide all vary as between countries.
"


Also remember that correlation is not causation. One can find correlations between US spending on science, space, and technology and Suicides by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, or the Number of people who drowned by falling into a pool and Films Nicolas Cage appeared in, or Per capita cheese consumption and Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets.
Seriously, those are the first three examples that are on Tyler Vigen's website Spurious Correlations (he also has written a book by the same name).



Main sources:


Now, would you feel safer in the countries Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, or the U.S. states of California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York?

What do these states and countries have in common? All the aforementioned countries have shall-issue licenses to carry a concealed firearm, while all of the aforementioned states have may-issue licenses to carry a concealed firearm. In other words, it is easier to get a license to carry a gun in 5 European countries than it is 8 U.S.. states. And in Poland, it is legal to carry black powder guns without any license (as long as the weapon was designed before 1885, and can not use metallic cartridges), and in the Czech Republic, it is legal to carry single-shot or double-barrel black-powder guns without a license as well, making both the Czech Republic and Poland 'constitutional carry' or 'permitless carry' for black-powder guns.

While the process to legally buy a gun in Europe is lengthier than most of America, legally buying a gun in many European countries is not as hard as people think, and saying that it is harder than legally buying a gun in America is not that simple, either. Let me explain.

According to Overview of gun laws by nation - Wikipedia, 20 European countries, the largest of which are France and Poland, are “shall issue” for issuing licenses to own firearms, with the strong majority of them allowing centerfire, semi-automatic rifles and pistols, and another 2 countries, Norway and Hungary, seem to be shall-issue or close to it. 4 countries allow some firearms to be owned even without a license.

I'll list the countries and their situations in regards to firearms restrictions. Permitless means no permit or license is required to posses a weapon.


Permitless for air guns, with restrictions on type in parenthesis:

. Belgium (7.5 joules).

. Bulgaria (24 joules).

. Czech Republic (16 joules).

. Germany (7.5 joules).

. Hungary (7.5 joules).

. Italy (7.5 joules).

. Netherlands (cannot look too much like a real firearm or be too easy to conceal).

. Sweden (10 joules at 4 meters from the muzzle, or 3 joules for fully automatic airguns).

. United Kingdom (16.2 joules for air rifles, 8.1 joules for air pistols. Restrictions for fully automatic airguns are unclear).


Permitless antique and black powder firearms. N stands for new (non-original), while R stands for revolver.:

. Belgium. N. R.

. Croatia. N. R. (Seemingly the only country that requires registration.)

. Czech Republic. N.

. France. N. R.

. Finland.

. Italy. N.

. Netherlands.

. Norway.

. Poland. N. R.

. Sweden.

. Switzerland.

. United Kingdom.


Additional source:

What are the laws for black powder revolvers in France & Poland (more in comments)?


Shall-issue. H means shall-issue for handguns, while R means shall-issue for center fire, semi-automatic rifles:

. Albania. R.

. Andorra. H.

. Austria. R. H.

. Belgium. R. H.

. Bulgaria. R. H.

. Croatia. R. H.

. Czech Republic. R. H.

. Estonia. R. H.

. Finland. R. H.

. France. R. H.

. Georgia. R. H.

. Lithuania. R. H.

. Malta. R. H.

. Monaco. R. H.

. Montenegro.

. North Macedonia. 

. Poland. R. H.

. San Marino. R. H.

. Serbia.

. Slovakia. H.

. Switzerland. R. H.


In contrast, the following U.S. States and Territories heavily restrict or prohibit the civilian possession of assault weapons:

. American Samoa. Full prohibition.

. Northern Mariana Islands. Full prohibition.

. District of Colombia. Full prohibition.

. California.

. Connecticut.

. Maryland. High-capacity magazines may be imported from out-of-state by individuals.

. Massachusetts.

. New Jersey. Only legal if acquired before May 1, 1990. Semi-automatic shotguns are limited to 6 rounds.

. New York. Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and New York City all have full prohibitions with magazines limited to 10 rounds for pistols and 5 rounds for rifles and shotguns.

. Hawaii. "Assault handguns" are prohibited.


Permitless modern firearms:

. Andorra (shotguns).

. Austria (manual-action rifles and non-pump manual action shotguns).

. Greenland (manual-action long guns).

. Monaco (rimfire rifles).

. Switzerland (single-shot and some bolt-action rifles.).


In contrast, the following states that require a permit to purchase long guns:

. California.

. Connecticut.

. Hawaii.

. Illinois.

. Massachusetts.

. New Jersey.

. District of Columbia.

. Any United States Territory.

New York City requires a permit to purchase with a limit of 1 rifle or shotgun and 1 handgun every 90 days. 

Australia, by comparison, limits the purchase to 1 firearm per 28 days, and in Canada, there are no limits for Non-restricted firearms.


Shall-issue concealed carry licenses:

. Czech Republic (up to 2 firearms with rounds chambered. Unlimited number of single-shot or double-barrel blackpowder firearms or firearms without rounds chambered).

. Estonia (no round in chamber except for revolvers).

. Latvia.

. Lithuania (no round in chamber except for revolvers). 

. Poland (may be restricted from carrying at police discretion).


The following U.S. states and territories have may-issue concealed carry licenses:

. California. 37 out of 58 counties are de-facto shall issue with cities within such counties possibly being stricter, no issue for 6 of 58 counties, with cities within such counties being possibly more permissive.

. Connecticut. State-wide licenses are may-issue, while local licenses are shall-issue.

. Delaware. 

. Hawaii. No-issue in practice.

. Maryland. No-issue in practice in some cities.

. Massachusetts. No-issue in practice in some cities and counties.

. New Jersey. No-issue in practice.

. New York. No-issue in some cities and counties, most notably New York City.

. United States Virgin Islands. No-issue in practice.

. Ameircan Samoa. No-issue. 

. Northern Mariana Islands. No-issue.


Despite the fact that is is hard to get a license to legally carry a firearm in California, New Jersey and New York, these 3 states still deal with a lot of crime, and despite the fact that it is easy to legally conceal carry a firearm in the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all of which are a little poor by European standards, these countries are very safe countries to be in. This still holds true for the 12 other European countries are also shall-issue for handguns, the 12 European countries that do not require a permit to obtain an antique firearm without a permit. 16 European countries have shall-issue licenses to center-fire, semi-automatic rifles such as the AR-15, but assault weapons are still rarely used in crimes in these countries. This again still hods true for the 5 European countries that do not require a permit to acquire longguns.

Keep in mind that just because a country is not shall-issue does not always mean that it is particularly difficult to obtain a license. Permissive may-issue exists, which means that licensing authorities almost always issue licenses even though they have the authority to deny licenses.

Countries that are permissive about carrying or at least owning knives are:

. Austria.

. Bulgaria.

. Czech Republic.

. Lithuania.

But all of these countries are still perfectly safe places to be in, and knife violence is not endemic.


I'd also like to mention that, in Canada, before 1969, anyone, even children and convicted murderers, can legally buy firearms other than handguns or machine guns (and even those do not have very many restrictions), but had few murders committed with shotguns, rifles, or even semi-automatic rifles or shotguns.

Canada's gun-friendly past


I already described to you a few some of the significant state gun laws, but there are gun laws even on the Federal level. Just to buy a "Title 1" firearm, which is an ordinary handgun, rifle or shotgun, even a single-shot .410 shotgun, from a gun dealer, which itself must hold a Federal Firearms License (FFL), you would need to pass a criminal background check and fill out paperwork. You will not pass a background check if you are convicted of a felony (a sentence that carries more than a year in prison) or have been convicted of domestic violence. Even being convicted of a felony white-collar or non-violent offense will make you prohibited from possessing or even touching a firearm. However, some states do have a process to restore your rights, especially for non-violent offenses.

In order to legally buy a machine gun, rifle with a barrel under 16 inches in length, shotgun with a barrel under 18 inches in length, or even a suppressor or "Any Other Weapon" (such as a handgun with a forward pistol grip), all of which come under the 1934 National Firearms Act, you will need to fill out lots of paperwork, send it to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to be approved, and need to pay a $200 tax stamp (though to legally have an Any Other Weapon transferred to you, you only need a $5 tax stamp).  And this is assuming that doing this is legal in your state, county, and municipality. A few counties and cities and a minority of states require a license to own National Firearms Act items or prohibit the civilian possession of National Firearms Act items with few exceptions.

In other words, you can NOT buy a machine gun from Wal-Mart. That is a complete and utter myth.

Much of this is talked about Firearms Facts: All About the NFA and Gun Gripes Episode 11: The 4473 Fiasco.


Firearms Facts: All About the NFA


There are also issues such as the 1968 gun control act requiring that handguns must have a certain number of features to legally be imported for civilians, 922r compliance, in which imported semi-automatic rifles and shotguns needing a certain number of American-made parts in them to be legal, and since 1989, many semi-automatic rifles can not be imported if it has "assault weapon" features.


2 Glock models that are illegal in the U.S. and I explain why


Most European countries in which it is legal for civilians to own semi-automatic rifles, shotguns, and pistols do not have additional restrictions on short barreled shotguns or rifles if they already are semi-automatic or have additional restrictions on handguns with forward pistol grips. Once your paperwork is cleared by the police and the firearm is in your hands, you can modify it any way you want short of turning it into a machine gun or, more recently, buying magazines with a capacity over 10 or 20 shots.



I want to give a real big thank you to everyone on Wikipedia, gunfacts.org, Mises Institute, and all other sources for all of their time and effort to bring together information. I would not have done this without them. One notable author is Ryan McMaken of the Mises Institute.


Bonus graphs:



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